The Hormuz divergence
The finding · as of Sat, 18 Jul 2026 05:00:59 UTC
In the 139 days since the disruption began, markets have mostly priced the Strait of Hormuz calmer than the water actually is. Landfall’s reality-vs-pricing gap averaged about 11 out of 100 beforehand — the two sides broadly agreed — and has averaged 40 since, peaking at 80 on March 10, 2026. It has swung widely, even briefly closing to near zero, and sits at 44 today.
Right now the gap runs one way: the physical strait — ship traffic, GPS jamming, incident reports — reads worse than what oil and markets are pricing in.
The gap across the crisis
Why the gap opens
Oil doesn’t stop moving the instant a chokepoint is threatened. Tankers already at sea keep arriving, and stockpiles on land keep refineries running for weeks — so markets can price near-calm even while ship traffic is badly down. That lag between physical reality and market pricing is the gap. Landfall builds the physical side from hard signals — IMF PortWatch satellite transit counts, GPS-jamming data, official incident warnings — and the pricing side from oil, financial stress, and recession signals. (The moving ship dots on the dashboard are an illustration, clearly labeled; the transit counts, gauges, and this gap are the real, citable numbers.)
Use the data
The full daily series is free to download and cite (credit Landfall, landfall.bkmt.com):
- Divergence history — CSV (date, divergence gap, Strait Pressure, Market Transmission)
- Divergence history — JSON
How the numbers are built is on the methodology page; the live read is on the dashboard. This is a descriptive record, not a forecast or advice — a gap can close because reality improves or because markets catch up, and this page doesn’t predict which. Snapshot as of Sat, 18 Jul 2026 05:00:59 UTC; the dated record is a citable version of today’s read.